Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Tainan Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.1% | +2.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.9% | -0.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.0% | -10.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.0% | +6.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Wind Allies | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |